The calculation
How this estimate works
Progesterone rises after ovulation and nudges resting body temperature up with it. Plot enough mornings and the cycle splits visibly into a lower stretch before ovulation and a higher one after.
This chart applies the three over six rule used in symptothermal charting. It takes the highest of the previous six usable readings, draws a coverline 0.1°F above it, and marks a shift once three readings in a row sit at or above that line. Ovulation is estimated as the day before the first of the three.
Good to know
Leave room for real life
A chart is a record, not an alarm. The rise arrives after the fertile days have passed, so the value builds over several cycles as a picture of when you tend to ovulate rather than what to do this week.
Charts with no clear shift happen, and one flat month means very little on its own. Several cycles without a shift, alongside irregular or absent periods, is worth discussing with a clinician.
Shift work, disrupted sleep and travel across time zones all make basal temperatures hard to read. If your mornings are not consistent, cervical mucus tracking may tell you more for less effort.